India’s GDP Growth Estimated at 6.3% for FY 2024–25: ICRA

On May 19, credit rating agency ICRA projected India’s economic growth rate at 6.9% for the quarter ending March 31, and at 6.3% for the full fiscal year 2024–25. This estimate is lower than the 6.5% projection by the National Statistical Office (NSO) published in February.

India's GDP growth for the first three quarters of FY 2024–25 stood at 6.5% (Q1), 5.6% (Q2), and 6.2% (Q3). To meet NSO’s full-year estimate of 6.5%, the growth rate for Q4 would need to be 7.6%, which ICRA believes is unlikely.

The NSO is expected to release its revised estimates for the full year and Q4 on May 31, 2025.

According to ICRA’s Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, the Q4 growth at 6.9% reflects mixed trends in private consumption and investment activity. A major factor for this unevenness is the uncertainty related to policy tariffs, especially affecting investments.

While service exports maintained double-digit growth, merchandise exports declined year-on-year in Q4, following a rise in Q3.

Unless there are significant revisions to data from Q1 or Q3, ICRA expects GDP growth for FY 2024–25 to remain at 6.3%, which is a noticeable drop compared to the previous fiscal year.