Lowest Inflation Since August 2019

On April 15, it was reported that India's retail inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 3.34%, the lowest level since August 2019. This decline was supported by a drop in prices of vegetables, pulses, and eggs. The inflation rate in February 2025 was recorded at 3.61%.

Regional Inflation Trends

In Telangana, the retail inflation rate dropped to 1.06%, while in Delhi, it reached 1.48%. This steady decrease in inflation has led to growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may reduce the bank rate in June 2025.

Food and Commodity Price Changes

Food inflation for March 2025 was recorded at 2.69%, down from 3.75% in February 2025. Vegetable prices decreased by 7.04% compared to March 2024, pulses saw a reduction of 2.73%, spices dropped by 4.92%, and eggs became 3.16% cheaper. However, prices of vegetable oils and food oils increased by 17.07% compared to last year.

Impact of Summer on Inflation

Experts, including Ikra's chief economist Aditi Nair, predict that the summer heat could lead to a rise in prices of perishable items. Despite this, the monsoon is expected to be normal, and this may prevent drastic price hikes. The possibility of an RBI rate cut in June 2025 is becoming increasingly likely.

Regional Inflation Variations

The highest inflation was seen in Kerala and Karnataka, where the retail inflation rate in March was 6.59% in Kerala and 4.44% in Karnataka. Other states such as Chhattisgarh and Jammu & Kashmir saw inflation rates around 4%. In Bihar, the rate was 3.11%, Haryana 3.81%, Uttar Pradesh 3.01%, Uttarakhand 3.78%, Jharkhand 2.08%, Punjab 3.65%, and Madhya Pradesh 3.12%.